The Future of Video Cameras

At the pro and prosumer level, I don't know. I don't have any experience in that area, but I would expect them to have their following. People who are really into pictures use DSLRs and I think people who are really into video will want high quality gear.

Consumer video cameras are in for some hurting. The market for them will shrink considerably. Point and shoot cameras will tread deeply into their market.

Consider this: Most video cameras today are tape based. when you are trying to tape your kids entire recital, this is fine, it's nice to get the whole thing in one go. However, few people actually do this, and fewer still actually watch these videos. Most videos are short, no more than a few minutes, and tape can be a real drag since it isn't random access.

More and more they are going to hard disks or flash memory, giving people random access to their clips. This trend will continue.

But let's think here. What other kind of camera uses flash memory, has a nice optical zoom and is taking better and better video as time goes on? That's right, point and shoot cameras. Why take a dedicated still camera AND a dedicated video camera when the still camera can do a decent job at both? The rare times when a dedicated video camera will do better just won't justify their cost, weight, and hassle.

My predictions for the next 5 years:

• Video cameras will continue to increase in resolution. 1920x1080p full HD will be the standard.
• Few, if any, will use tape, most will use flash memory (16 or 32 GB cards maybe?) some will use hard disks (large enough to get your whole vacation on, 200+ GB)
• Their market will be smaller than it is today.
  

The Future of Cameraphones

Cameraphones have a bright future. Pretty much everyone has a phone, almost all of them have a camera already, so even if people don't use them, they will remain a check-off feature that everyone has. Given this, you can't really judge the success of them as a camera just by sales.

The real advantage that they have is that you always have them. You don't have to debate whether or not to take them or make sure you remember to grab it. You just have it.

The downside is the picture quality is fairly poor and I don't see that changing a whole lot. The sensor is just too small, and if you make it bigger, then it and the lens take up more space and add weight, both of which are at a premium on phones.

In the next five years I predict:

• the pointless megapixel race will continue 2MP now, probably 4 or 5 in five years. Mostly useless over 2MP and totally useless over 3MP, the quality just isn't there, even in bright light.
• LED flashes: This will help things a little. More and more phones will get white LED flashes on the camera. They will actually help a lot of shots where camera phones are used, a group of friends taking a picture from a few feed away, like at a party or sitting around a table at a restaurant. As a bonus, they can be used as a flashlight.
• Video: They currently have pathetic video (mine does something like 176x144 at 10 frames a second). This will get better, but who knows how much. I think in 5 years, most phones will be doing 320x240 30fps and high end ones will do 640x480 @ 30fps.
• Phones with real cameras will remain a small niche. There are a couple of them now, with real flashes and zoom lenses. Here's the problem. The bigger camera parts add weight and bulk, and you have to carry them around all the time, even when you don't need the camera. Better to have a smaller, not as good camera with you all the time for those spur of the moment things and bring a point and shoot when you know there will be photo ops. There are some people who carry a point and shoot everywhere, and a camera like this would be an advantage for them, but I doubt that is a huge market segment.
  

The future of Point and Shoot Cameras

Point and shoot cameras seem to be in a dismal spot, with cameraphones eating at them from the bottom and digital SLR cameras pushing down on them from the top. However, think that they will have a strong niche for the foreseeable future. Their growth will probably slow, but they are far from extinct.

What's going to save them? Size, picture quality, and video.

Picture quality: Seems like an odd strength, given that it is much worse than a DSLR, but instead compare it to a cameraphone. Cameraphones have tiny sensors and tiny lenses, which means that they only take decent pictures in bright light. P&S cameras, with their larger sensors and better flash can take better pictures. Plus, the more advanced feature like face detection work better when you have more processing power to dedicate to them. And Zoom, how many camera phones have a 3x or 4x optical zoom?

Size: Seems like an odd strength too. They are much bulkier than a camera phone. You actually have to remember to take them with you instead of always having them around. However, compared to a DSLR, they are much, much smaller and lighter. You can put it in your pocket or bag without it being uncomfortable.

Video: Given that we are mostly talking about still cameras, video may seem like an odd strength, but really, it is the point and shoot camera's secret weapon. 5 years ago, they took 320x240 video at 15 frames a second without sound. Now almost all of them take 640x480 video at 30 fps with sound. That means that today's cameras take good enough video that you don't need a video camera for you 30 second to several minute clips. Where will they be in 5 years? Definitely taking HD video, probably at 1920x1080. For short videos they will be perfect. Longer ones will be fine, there will be plenty of flash memory, but I think they will compress things too heavily to do much editing, still, for most people, this will be all they need.

The Future of Nikon DSLRs

Nikon digital SLRs fall into four broad categories

• Pro, such as the D3. Clearly aimed at pros, big, heavy, and emphasis on image quality
• Prosumer, such as the D200 and D300. Suitable for some pros, well built, very good image quality
• Advanced amateur, Currently the aging D80. Not as well built, fewer features than the prosumer, but pretty much the same image quality
• Amateur, D40 and D60. Entry level to slightly better, aimed at people who want to take good pictures without an excessive amount of effort.

Here is where I see it going. In general, I expect the number of megapixels on digital cameras to creep up, regardless of the segment. Hopefully sensors and image processing will increase at the same rate so we will have a net win.

On the pro level I think Nikon will stick with full-frame (FF or as Nikon calls it, FX). The increase in image quality is too much to give up on. I think they will have two cameras, one lower megapixel, with large photos-sites, fast, great image quality, great for sports and low light. This is where the D3 is now. The second camera will be an answer to Canon EOS-1Ds Mark III, Full frame, smaller photosites, high resolution. Aimed at pros who aren't doing low light or action. Nikon doesn't currently have a camera in this segment, but I would expect them to have one soon, probably using a sensor based on the new Sony 25mp sensor. Prices will be $3,000-6,000 on introduction.

Prosumer cameras are aimed at less demanding pros, as backup cameras for pros and people who have photography as a serious hobby. the Dx00 cameras fill this segment, the D300 being the current one. I think Nikon will stick with the APS-C (1.5 crop factor) sensors here. There is a huge cost advantage that isn't going away. Since the sensor size is fixed, you don't get the Moore's law curve bringing prices down. Build quality won't be up to the pro line, but will be very good, with metal chassis and weather sealing. Great for the amateur who takes the camera out regardless of the weather. Prices will be $1,600-1,800 on introduction.

Advanced Amateur. Still for people who really like photography. lesser build than the Prosumer cameras, fewer features, but still more than most people use, image quality on par with the prosumer cameras, but about a year behind. The D80 currently is in this segment, but will probably be refreshed with a D90 that has the same sensor as the D300 by the end of the year.

Amateur. People who want good quality pictures, but don't want to spend a huge amount of time learning photography and fiddling with settings. People who are stepping up from a point and shoot, or people who are on a limited budget. Currently both the D40 and D60 are in this segment, but it is a big segment with diverse needs Nikon could introduce even more cameras here, in the film days they had 5 or 6 on the market with slightly different feature sets (but the same image quality, since it was film). I expect a camera at a cheaper price point than the D40 (either a D30, or continued price reductions on the D40).

Sensors in the next few years.

Sensors are a specialty product, expensive to design, a limited useful lifetime,and relatively low volume, Thus, outside the pro line, Nikon will leverage the same sensor across many products. Cameras with price differences of hundreds of dollars will have the same sensor. Remember, in the film days, all cameras used the same sensor (the film), so the low-end $250 camera could take the same quality pictures as the $1000+ pro body, the only difference was features. It worked then, no reason to think it wouldn't work now. At any given time I expect the lineup to look roughly like this:

• Pro: FX high megapixel sensor
• Pro: FX low megapixel sensor
• Prosumer: high MP DX
• Advanced Amateur: same sensor as prosumer
• Amateur: at the high end, same sensor as prosumer, at the low end, an older generation, slightly lower MP sensor

You could easily have 5 different bodies targeted at different market segments and only have two sensors different sensors. Of course, since Nikon doesn't refresh all the cameras at the same time, you will see the new sensors come in on the prosumer line and trickle down over the course of a year or two to the other segments.

Megapixel predictions

As the number of megapixels goes up, they noise goes up (given a similar generation process, new generations often are slightly better for the same number of megapixels). The value of each pixel goes down too. going from 6MP to 8MP is a one third increase in the number of pixels, but the increase in the printable image you get goes up much more slowly. A 6MP camera is 3000x2000 pixels, at 300dpi you can print it at a size of 10x6.7 inches, an 8MP camera is 3456x2304, at 300dpi you get 11.5x7.7 inches. That's it, only an inch and a half wider. As the megapixels go up, the increase is even less impressive. A 12MP camera has 4288x2848 pixels, the Pentax K20 has 14.5 MP which gives it a resolution of 4672x3104. That is only 384 pixels wider, or about an inch and a quarter at 300dpi.

This won't stop them from slowly increasing the MP and people getting excited. I expect on the DX front that they will increase the number of MP by 2 or 2.5 MP every other year.

Model number predictions.

Nikon is running out of model numbers. for the pro line, they have DN where N is a single digit, at the D3 they still have a ways to go. The Prosumer line is DN00, again where N is a single number. At D300 they still have room there too. At the Advanced Amateur and Amateur level they are really in trouble. They have already used the D40, D50, D60, D70, and D80. Most people expect the D90 to come out this year. The D50, and D70 aren't available anymore, and the D80 is on the way out. They could come out with a new low-end model and call it the D30, but they really need to either change their numbering scheme or stop giving them a new number every time they bring out a new camera.